Nov WASDE raised US soybean production forecast by 25 mbu on higher yields to 4.13 bbu. With crush and exports unchanged, US soybean ending stocks are raised to 245 mbu, higher than 221 mbu expected by the market.
Oct WASDE upped global 2023/24 soybean crop by 0.9 MMT to 400.4 MMT with no changes made for South America. For Ukraine, the crop was upped by 0.4 MMT to 5.2 MMT.
Global 2023/24 soybean exports remained virtually steady at 168.3 MMT.
The global 2023/24 beginning stocks are reduced 1.6 MMT, reflecting offsetting back-year balance sheet revisions for China and Brazil. China’s beginning stocks are reduced on lower soybean imports for 2021/22 and 2022/23 and higher crush for 2022/23. Conversely, Brazil’s beginning stocks are increased on a larger 2022/23 crop of 158 MMT (+2 MMT m/m) due to higher-than-expected use to date.
Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 1.1 MMT to 114.5 MMT, as higher stocks for Brazil and the US are more than offset by lower stocks for China. The average trade guess was at 115.06 MMT.
For rapeseed, Nov WASDE raised Russia’s 2023/24 crop by 0.5 MMT to 4 MMT, the EU production was upped by 0.1 MMT to 20.1 MMT.
Ukrainian export reduced by 0.15 MMT to 3.65 MMT.
