As of 22 November 2023, we do not see anymore 10 USD premium for 11.5 protein wheat vs. feed wheat. Taking into account CPT buying levels in deep sea ports of Ukraine, FOB Reni/Izmail sellers for 11.5 protein could be at about 215 USD/MT level. On 21 November, the seller of 11.5 protein wheat was heard at 265 USD/MT CIF East Coast Italy. Buyers on destinations are not ready so far for such levels, but their buying idea increased by about 6 USD/MT from yesterday.
As of middle of November 2023, Ukraine exported 5.3 MMT of wheat. It is minus 11% y/y. As per market participants it is connected with the fact, that about 65-70% of wheat in this year crop is feed quality. As per our estimate export of milling wheat totaled so far about 1 MMT and about 2-2.5 MMT are still left on the market. Farmers do not hurry to sell. As of 20 November 2023, Ukraine planted 4 MLN HA of winter wheat from 4.4 MLN HA plan. Normally, spring acreage could be about 300 KHA. For comparison, November WASDE estimates Ukrainian total wheat acreage at 5 MLN HA.
