Nov WASDE cut world 2023/24 crop forecast by 1.5 MMT to 782 MMT on decreases to many countries including India, Argentina, Kazakhstan, the UK, and Brazil. The decrease for production in India by almost 3 MMT to 110.55 MMT is based on revised government estimates. In Argentina, production is forecast 1.5 MMT lower to 15 MMT as rains in Oct were too late to benefit the crop in Cordoba and Santa Fe. It is higher than the recent forecast from the RGE at 13.5 MMT. Kazakhstan’s crop forecast down 1 MMT to 12 MMT. For the UK, the forecast was cut by 0.45 MMT to 14.3 MMT, and for Brazil, by 0.4 MMT to 9.4 MMT. These production declines are partially offset by a 5 MMT increase in the forecast for Russia, up to 90 MMT, based on near-final harvest data from the AgMin that indicates more harvested area and higher yields. The forecast for the EU was upped 0.3 MMT to134.3 MMT.
World trade 2023/24 is lowered 1.3 MMT to 205 MMT, primarily on lower exports from Argentina and India that are only partly offset by an increase for Ukraine. Nov WASDE cut Argentina’s export by 0.5 MMT to 10 MMT, and India’s shipments by 0.5 MMT to 0.5 MMT. For Ukraine, the export forecast was raised by 1 MMT to 12 MMT.
Global consumption virtually steady at 792.8 MMT.
Projected 2023/24 global ending stocks are raised 0.6 MMT to 258.7 MMT, with larger forecasts for the USA, Russia, China, and Argentina more than offsetting declines for India, Ukraine, and Brazil. It is higher than 257.8 MMT expected by the market. Particularly, stocks are increased in Russia by 3 MMT. The USA stocks are upped by 14 mbu to 684 mbu, higher than 669 mbu as trade guess.
